EARLY RECESSION INDICATORS: INFLATION / DEFLATION: SMOOTHED PROBABILITY (monthly) 5-YEAR RATE (daily); CPI ALL ITEMS CITY AVERAGE (monthly); & EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE (daily):

(since: 2000-06-06)
EARLY RECESSION INDICATORS: INFLATION / DEFLATION: SMOOTHED PROBABILITY (monthly) 5-YEAR RATE (daily); CPI ALL ITEMS CITY AVERAGE (monthly; updated near 9th-13th)); & EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE (daily):

(past 12 months)
EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE
EARLY RECESSION INDICATORS: REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (monthly; updated near 30th-3rd)

(since: 1959-06-06)
EARLY RECESSION INDICATORS: REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (monthly; updated near 30th-3rd)

(since: 1996-06-06)
EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE